http://www.farmgateblog.com/article/ en stu@farmgateblog.com Copyright 2012 2012-05-16T10:19:36+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/crystal-ball-gazing-ethanol/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/crystal-ball-gazing-ethanol/#When:10:19:36Z At the end of 2011 Congress allowed the tax credit for ethanol blending to expire, along with the tariff on imported ethanol, as well as the blenders’ credit for biodiesel fuel.  The tax credit for production of ethanol from biomass remains, but is scheduled to expire at the end of the current year.  Since the expiration of the ethanol supports, the EPA has allowed the ethanol blend in motor fuel to rise from 10% to 15%, but automaker acceptance and the needed infrastructure are dynamics that are not yet in motion to support ethanol.  Given all of those issues, what is the future for ethanol and its consumption for a large quantity of US corn?  That is an important follow-up question to the preceding Farmgateblog posting about the impact of ethanol’s savings on the price of gasoline. Agricultural Policy 2012-05-16T10:19:36+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/does-ethanol-really-lower-the-price-of-gasoline/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/does-ethanol-really-lower-the-price-of-gasoline/#When:10:16:06Z The latest USDA Supply Demand Report indicated that corn processing for ethanol purposes would not increase much from the 2011 crop to the 2012 crop.  About 5 billion bushels would be converted to ethanol.  One reason is the blend wall that serves as a maximum for the 10% fuel blend to be incorporated into the nation’s motor fuel supply.  And since the demand for gasoline is declining due to the recession, the demand for ethanol is not growing.  But while ethanol will be consuming nearly one-third of the US corn crop, it will also have another significant benefit to family budgets and the US economy. Agricultural Policy 2012-05-15T10:16:06+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/crystal-ball-gazing-soybeans/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/crystal-ball-gazing-soybeans/#When:04:43:30Z Did you increase your bean acres after the March 30 USDA planting intentions report? A significant swing in market prices has benefitted soybean production.  Fundamentals include the South American shift to corn and fewer bean acres, China’s aggressive buying of soybeans, and fewer US bean acres for 2012.  Ag economists report there was a $48 advantage for corn on March 1 which has evolved into a $78 advantage for beans on May 10.  Most farmers were planting corn for the revenue opportunities, but what is the market opportunity for soybeans? Marketing 2012-05-14T04:43:30+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/usda-one-surpise-after-another/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/usda-one-surpise-after-another/#When:03:52:15Z There are always surprises, and the May USDA Supply-Demand report did not disappoint anyone.  Even when you knew USDA was going to forecast a very large corn crop, the projection for 14.8 billion bushels and a 166 bushel national yield average were well over the top of expectations.  Let’s take a survey and see what the experts thought about the numbers… Marketing 2012-05-11T03:52:15+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/fasten-your-seatbelt-for-todays-usda-corn-production-forecast/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/fasten-your-seatbelt-for-todays-usda-corn-production-forecast/#When:15:12:28Z An eye-popping forecast of 14.8 billion bushels of corn has been issued by USDA in the May Supply-Demand report, which is up 2.4 billion from the 2011-12 crop.  Even though consumption projections are raised by more than 1 billion bushels, there will be a lot left over, and while the corn market expectedly opened lower, the bean market opened strongly higher due to increased use and low ending stocks for this year and next. Marketing 2012-05-10T15:12:28+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/market-anticipating-bearish-numbers-in-usda-may-supply-demand-report/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/market-anticipating-bearish-numbers-in-usda-may-supply-demand-report/#When:04:24:40Z USDA releases its May Supply and Demand report on Thursday, which is the Department’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2012/13 marketing year. It will also present the first calendar-year 2013 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products.  The market has been anticipating the report giving bearish news, which fostered a significant sell-off of commodities on Wednesday.  Let’s look at the potential numbers… Marketing 2012-05-10T04:24:40+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/how-can-corn-prices-move-in-three-directions-at-once/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/how-can-corn-prices-move-in-three-directions-at-once/#When:06:03:34Z Wily three-headed monsters lived in caves of Greek and Roman mythology, but the three personalities of the corn market live in the trading pits at the CME, and have been about as challenging to conquer.  New crop futures, old crop futures, and the basis for cash corn each have a mind of their own, and while you are addressing one head-on, another may come around to bite you in the tailgate. Marketing 2012-05-09T06:03:34+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/special-edition-cornbelt-update/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/special-edition-cornbelt-update/#When:04:51:04Z The Farmgateblog presents a special edition of Cornbelt Update, a weekly newsletter to subscribers.  Please enjoy and be informed, and if you would like to subscribe, information about that process follows the newsletter items. Cornbelt Update 2012-05-07T04:51:04+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/should-conservation-compliance-be-linked-to-crop-insurance/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/should-conservation-compliance-be-linked-to-crop-insurance/#When:04:22:52Z As Congress and agriculture prepare for a new Farm Bill, it appears the primary safety net will be the crop insurance program.  Twenty years ago, only 20% of farmers used it, but today only 20% are not using it, which is a function of greater opportunities for indemnity payments.  But in the wake of getting farmers to use crop insurance to manage their production and revenue risk, the tool has become a club to threaten farmers with penalties, should farmers misbehave. Agricultural Policy 2012-05-04T04:22:52+00:00 http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/cowboys-cant-afford-another-lightning-strike/ http://www.farmgateblog.com/site/cowboys-cant-afford-another-lightning-strike/#When:05:09:02Z The old saying that lightning never strikes twice in the same place has been disproven by the beef market which has been reeling from lightning strikes, first by lean, finely-textured beef, and more recently by the discovery of a cow with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE).  The market has declined from $129 per cwt to $120 for finished cattle before these events, and the futures market has lost $15 for June live cattle contracts.  Don’t bet on the saying “The third time is the charm.” Livestock Production 2012-05-03T05:09:02+00:00