Friday, November 11, 2005
Extension Update
·Finally, USDA’s estimate for the 2005 corn crop surpassed the 11 bil. bu. mark and was projected Thursday at 11.032 bil. bu. That is the second largest. Ending stocks next Aug. were placed at 2.310 bil. bu. Corn demand was increased to 10.835 bil. bu. Ethanol usage was raised 75 mil. bu., while exports and feed/residual were left unchanged from Oct.·While corn futures continue to drift lower, Extension’s Darrel Good says cash prices in many areas have increased modestly over the past 3 weeks. The average central IL basis was at the weakest level in early Oct. The weak basis in IL reflected a combination of factors, including large supplies, rapid harvest, transportation bottlenecks, and high transportation costs. Darrel says it appears, however, that transportation issues and the rapid harvest were larger contributors to the weak basis than the large grain supply.
·After the first of the year, Darrel Good says the corn market will focus on 2006 corn acreage. Escalating production costs of corn relative to soybeans is generating expectations of reduced corn acreage and increased soybean acreage in 2006. But he says current futures prices do not provide a strong signal about acreage changes. Depending on yield expectations and cost differences, those prices might favor soybeans over corn.
·While near term prospects do not point to a significant rebound in corn prices, Darrel says history suggests that cash prices will recover by the spring/summer of 2006, at least for a brief period. The Extension Marketing Specialist says " typical" rebound in cash prices from fall lows to spring/summer highs in Illinois is about $.70 per bushel.
·USDA also increased its estimate of the 2005 soybean crop to 3.043 bil. bu. This is a 76 mil. bu. increase from Oct. Estimated ending stocks next Aug. increased to 350 mil. bu, a 90 mil bu increase from Oct., which was much larger than traders anticipated. Brazilian production was cut to 58.5 mmt, reflecting fewer acres planted and Asian rust problems.
·Results are in from the U of I trials on Yieldgard hybrids. Entomologists Kevin Steffey and Mike Gray evaluated 10 samples provided by Monsanto. Some of their findings are:
1) Protection will vary from one YieldGard Rootworm (MON 863) hybrid to another.
2) The overall performance of this technology has been very good.
3) Late-season pruning on some YieldGard Rootworm (MON 863) hybrids was seen.
4) Harvest difficulties could result from late-season pruning of brace roots and lodging.
·Results are also in from the European corn borer survey. After low populations in 2004, ECB populations rebounded and were higher in 2005. The average number of second-generation ECB per 100 plants in IL in 2005 was 34.4, more than double the number in 2004 (15.6). Average percentage infestation of corn plants was 24.2, also higher than the 17.1% infested in 2004. The number of corn borers that will overwinter throughout the state is higher than in 2004 but is still low, especially compared to historic numbers.
·If you have wondered about your loss of yield due to soybean cyst nematode, now is the time to take a soil sample and find out your degree of SCN infestation. It will also allow plenty of time to make decisions about whether to plant soybeans and which SCN-resistant soybean variety to use in the spring. http://www.planthealth.info/scn_scout.htm
·Volunteers are needed to participate in a network of test plots focused on nitrogen application. At least 100 plots are needed around the state to conduct the N-rate trials. For more information, visit: http://www.ipm.uiuc.edu/bulletin/article.php?id=434 . There may or may not be funds available to help offset any yield loss. A grant is pending.
·World trade negotiations are faltering ahead of their scheduled culmination in Hong Kong in December. Ag Secretary Mike Johanns says the main issues are domestic support, export competition, and market access. There is agreement on domestic support and export competition, but the EU has balked on an agreement on market access.
·House Ag Committee members upped the ante for cutting farm spending, by clipping $3.7 billion from the annual appropriation, after the Senate voted to reduce the USDA budget by $3.01 billion. Among the House cuts are a 1% reduction in direct payments and reducing the amount of money farmers can request in advanced payments.
·Ethanol plants are converting one bushel of corn into 2.8 gallons of ethanol and 18 pounds of distillers dried grains. That has to be consumed by livestock to make the ethanol operation profitable, but how does the livestock producer take advantage of that feed source? Check out the new U of I website: http://ilift.traill.uiuc.edu/distillers/ .
·Sens. Obama (IL), Lugar (IN), and Harkin (IA) have jointly introduced legislation that, within a decade, would ensure all new gasoline-powered motor vehicles sold in the US are able to use fuel blends of up to 85% ethanol (E85). Now only 2% are flex-fuel.
·Don’t miss the IL Commodity Conference set for Nov. 22 at the Radisson Hotel in Bloomington. The agenda includes a financial analysis of IL farms and the significance of the evolving animal identification issue. Register with any commodity organization.
·If you are producing for the consumer market, plan to attend Extension’s seminar on Marketing Strategies for Consumer-Driven Agriculture, set for Dec. 1 at Bloomington’s Interstate Center, beginning at 9 a.m.. Details are at: http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/iidea/
·Mark your calendar for Jan. 4 & 5, for the Crop Protection Technology Conf. at the Illini Union. It begins with an overview of 10 years of transgenic crops and closes with a look at IPM. Other sessions address: soil fertility strategies, glyphosate-resistant weeds, management challenges in corn, soybean rust, soybean pest management issues, and issues in environmental toxicology. Register at: http://cptc.ipm.uiuc.edu/conferences.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 11/11 at 05:10 PM | Permalink