Friday, October 28, 2005
If you are pricing soybeans, Extension specialist Darrel Good says there is some consistency in forecasts of the 2005-06 marketing year average price, with the stocks-to-use models projecting a price $.20 above the mid point of the USDA’s forecast range and the market offering a price at the upper end of the range and $.40 above the mid point.
Darrel Good says the market is currently offering an opportunity to forward price farm stored beans at levels well above the expected marketing year average price. The average premium for Jan. delivery over immediate delivery in central IL is 27-cents. A return to a more normal basis puts late spring prices about $.60 over spot bids. Considerable price uncertainty, however, will persist until well into the South American growing season.
USDA announced that corn farmers would receive a final 2004-crop counter-cyclical payment of 29 cents per bushel on 85% of their acreage base. For 2005 crop, the corn CCP is estimated at 40 cents, and producers can collect 35% of that or 14 cents. Sign up has also begun for FY ‘06 crop year direct payment rates of 28 cents for corn, 44 cents for soybeans and 52 cents for wheat. The maximum CCP will be 40 for corn, 36 cents for beans, and 65 cents for wheat. Visit your county FSA office for details and sign up.
Farm Income 2006 seminars have been scheduled in 5 locations and will cover IL farm income outlook, farm bill preparations, rising input costs for crop rotations and cash rent values, plus 6 break out session topics. Seminars will be: 12/8 Springfield, 12/13 Rochelle, 12/14 Moline, 12/19 Urbana, and 12/20 Mt. Vernon. $40 registration includes materials. For information, call 217/333-5506 or register: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu .
The soil temperature is dropping, but wait for sub-50 degree readings before fall nitrogen application. Extension’s Emerson Nafziger says to maximize availability for next year's crop, wait until soil temperatures reduce the biological activity that converts N from the ammonium to the nitrate form. Using a stabilizer to help ensure this. Replacing N-Serve with extra nitrogen to guard against loss is less justified especially when N costs rise. If corn follows corn, and you had a half crop this year, give credit for half the difference between applied N rate in 2005 and the yield (in bushels) harvested.
Natural gas prices may be 71% higher than they were last year, says Purdue ag economist Wally Tyner. The big share of the price increase is due to overall higher prices, and a small portion is due to the expectation that this winter will be colder than last year’s. Tyner says gas supplies are adequate and there will be no shortage.
If you are growing continuous corn, Purdue economist Kevin Robertson says will need to boost yields next year to cover increased energy costs compared to a corn-soybean rotation. He says continuous corn needs to yield 225-bu./acre to compete with a corn rotation yield of 180 bu./acre. He used $3/gal. fuel, $0.38/lb. Nitrogen, and $2.30 corn
Don’t waste time trying to open mature markets such as the EU and Japan, says U of I ag policy specialist Bob Thompson. The future growth for farm exports will be in lesser developed countries, "The reality is that trade liberalization is the key to faster economic growth in the only places where there is market growth potential for their products. That opportunity is in low-income countries. Growth in their food demand quickly outpaces their ag production capacity, and they become larger importers of farm products.”
Those world trade negotiators are also watching what the US Congress is doing to pare back farm program supports. The Senate had cut $3 bil. from subsidy programs and conservation per year through 2010. The House Ag Committee has just cut $3.7 bil.
If you need Certified Livestock Manager training before taking your state test, 12 are scheduled around the state from Dec. 9 to Mar. 12. The new curriculum covers: feeding distillers dried grains, manure application to wet soils, and manure application over field tiles. Training and testing is required for livestock managers with more than 1,000 animal units. Managers with more than 300 units only have to take the test. Consult: www.livestocktraining.com or call (217) 333-2611 to register or buy a CD or manual.
IL beef producers saw 55 cents of red ink per 100 pounds of beef produced in 2004. That compares to $20.87 per 100 pounds produced in 2003. Higher feed costs and higher prices paid for feeder calves were the culprits according to FBFM statistics. When 2005 statistics are in, they are expected to show higher cattle revenue due to lower feed costs.
Regarding prices, Extension’s Chris Hurt says the cattle market has absorbed the influx of Canadian cattle with little harm. Prices have moved to the higher $80s and futures markets remain optimistic that prices will push into the low $90s this winter. But he says Canadian cattle will grow from 3 to 4% of US slaughter, and Canadian feeder calves have not been factored into the market. Hurt says these issues fog the future for cattle prices.
Dairy producers had a good 2004 according to FBFM numbers with higher milk prices being the primary contributor. U of I ag economist Dale Lattz said, “On a per-cow basis, total returns from milk were $3,189 compared to the total cost to produce milk of $2,980 per cow." 2004 milk production was up 127 pounds from ’03 and averaged 19,480 lbs.
Pork producers should plan to attend a production conference at Springfield, Nov. 15-16. Topics include: gilt pool management, electrical pitfalls, biosecurity, ventilation management, employee management and training, and animal welfare. Pre-registration is $100. For information, visit: http://www.porkboard.org or call (217) 244-5177.
The National FFA convention delegates have voted to allow female FFA members to wear black pants, lifting the requirement for black skirts as part of the official dress code. But the group decided against opening up FFA chapters in middle schools.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 10/28 at 03:57 PM | Permalink