Farmgateblog.com - Where farm decision-makers start their day

« Back to main

Thursday, February 21, 2013

How will your farm budget handle $4.80 corn and $10.50 beans?



 

How will your farm operating budget look with $4.80 corn and $10.50 soybeans?  Many farmers will have a problem covering their breakeven cost with USDA’s projection for the average prices of the 2013 corn and soybean crops.  Nevertheless those prices were suggested Thursday at the annual USDA Outlook Forum during the presentation of Chief Economist Joe Glauber.

 

Acreage

The official USDA projections revealed by Glauber in his speech and in his slides are based on large acreage, a return to normal weather, and trend line yields. He says the high prices for the 2012 crop will encourage large plantings, domestically and globally.  USDA is expecting about 230 million acres of corn, beans, and wheat, the largest since 1982.  Included in that is an expectation for 96.5 million acres of corn and 77.5 million acres of beans, which would equal the 2009 high for beans. Part of the reason for increased soybean acre is an increase in soft red winter wheat for double-cropping along with reduced CRP acreage.

 

Drought

Along with increased acres are USDA’s ideas for increased yields, based on a return to more normal weather.  USDA acknowledges that over half of the US remains under a drought influence, but Glauber says there are several reasons to expect a normal trend:

  1. First, we have already seen some improvement in the eastern Corn Belt. While much of Indiana and Illinois was in drought throughout much of the summer, fall and winter rainfall has improved conditions there.
  2. Second, studies suggest that there is little correlation between seasonal precipitation in one year and the next. A dry summer in 2012 has little implication for summer precipitation in 2013.
  3. Third, research shows that corn and soybean yields are largely determined by summer weather conditions, with July weather being the most important. There is little evidence to suggest that low preseason moisture levels have significant impacts on corn and soybean yields.

 

Prices

With larger US and world supplies, Glauber says prices will be lower for most grains and oilseeds.  He forecast a $4.80 average for corn, down 33% from 2012 prices, and that would be the lowest since 2009/2010.  The same is expected for soybeans, with a 27% decline to $10.50.

 

Ethanol

Glauber says the reason that corn prices rose aggressively the past several years is now contributing to lower demand, and that is ethanol.  Use for ethanol topped 5 billion bushels between 2010 and 2012, but higher corn prices tightened ethanol margins, production was cut back and now overall motor fuel demand has also declined.  Demand has dropped due to fewer miles being driven and increased fuel efficiency for those miles.  While export markets have provided increased sales, but competition from Brazil and trade restrictions from Europe have diminished that opportunity.

 

Exports

Exports will be at record levels, dominated by soybean purchases by China.  However, corn will not be high on the global shopping list and will be at the lowest levels since the early 1970’s.  The result will be Brazil taking over as the global corn exporter during the marketing year for the 2012 crop, then the US returning to the top spot for exports of the 2013 crop.

 

Feed

On the flip side of lower grain prices are increased opportunities for profitability in livestock production.  High feed prices have been their nemesis the past two years, and that scenario will continue until the 2013 harvest. While poor grazing resources have troubled cattle producers, they are joined by other livestock producers who have been challenged by high grain costs, and that limited expansion.  Glauber says lower prices will foster expansion. But he says a repeat of 2012 will likely result in further liquidation.

 

Summary:

 

USDA expects large corn and soybean acreage in 2013 and with normal weather there will be large production and a re-building of carryover stocks.  High corn prices have diminished its demand, but high prices are still being paid by China for soybean purchases and they will be among the US export leaders.  High corn prices have also diminished ethanol demand, along with fewer miles driven.  The result of increased production will be drops in corn and soybean prices in the neighborhood of 30%.

 

Note:  If managing revenue risk in this market environment, along with uncertain weather, is a concern; plan to attend a February 28, 2013 conference on Managing Weather and Marketing Risk at Decatur, IL.  Details:  www.AgEngage.com .

Posted by Stu Ellis on 02/21 at 10:45 PM | Permalink

Comments

How am I going to justify that $12K per acre I paid for that 80 I bought last year at 50 times market based cash rent (1-2% cap rate). The government needs to find a way to help us farmers burn up even more of our crop into ethanol to raise prices of food or at least give us some type of handout so I can pay my farm off and then some. It's my God-given right as a farmer to be able to pay whatever I want for farmland without any financial risk, right? Especially since all the trade magazines and Purdue say farmland isn't overvalued. They can't ever be wrong, right? And Farm Credit loaned me the money, right - so farmland must totally be worth at least $12K per acre forever, right? Right?

Posted by: Harold Smith at February 22, 2013 9:09AM

Post a comment

*Name:

*Email:

Location:

URL:

SPAM? Leave this blank unless you are a spam-bot.

*Comment:

Remember my personal information

Notify me of follow-up comments?

*Required