Thursday, August 11, 2011
August 1 Crop Report Forecasts Are For Less Grain Production Than Anticipated
USDA has dropped its forecast for corn production by nearly a half billion bushels of corn and a quarter billion bushels of beans. Both numbers are less than what the market was expecting.
Corn production is forecast at 12.9 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2010. If realized, this will be the third largest production total on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 153.0 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel from 2010, and the fourth highest yield on record. Acreage planted for all purposes is estimated at 92.3 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 84.4 million acres, down less than 1 percent from June but up 4 percent from 2010.
The market was looking for a 2011 corn crop of 13.038 billion bushels, which is based on an average yield of 155.2 bushels per acre. In July, the National Ag Statistics Service forecast a crop of 13.470 billion, based on a 158.7 national yield.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 8 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.4 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 73.8 million acres, down less than 1 percent from June and down 4 percent from 2010. Planted area for the Nation is estimated at 75.0 million acres, down fractionally from June.
The market was looking for 3.174 billion bushels of soybeans, with a yield of 42.8 bushels per acre. That compares to 3.225 billion estimated by USDA in July on a 43.4 bushel yield.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, up slightly from last month and up 1 percent from 2010. The United States yield is forecast at 46.3 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month but down 0.5 bushel from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain totals 32.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 2 percent from last year.
The market expects USDA to estimate all-wheat production at 2.085 billion bushels, down from 2.106 billion in July. Current year wheat stocks are expected to come in at 671 million bushels, nearly unchanged from 670 million in July.
Other spring wheat production is forecast at 522 million bushels, down 5 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last year. The expected area to be harvested for grain totals 12.3 million acres, down 7 percent from last month and down 8 percent from last year. The United States yield is forecast at 42.5 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from last month but down 3.6 bushels from 2010. Of the total production, 475 million bushels are Hard Red Spring Wheat, down 6 percent from last month and down 17 percent from last year.
State corn soybeans
Illinois 170 48
Indiana 150 43
Iowa 177 52
Kansas 110 26
Michigan 142 41
Minnesota 166 40
Missouri 126 39
Nebraska 166 52
North Dakota 125 30
Ohio 158 44
South Dakota 141 38
Wisconsin 159 45
From the August Supply-Demand Report Total projected corn use for 2011/12 is reduced 340 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected 150 million bushels lower reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is projected 50 million bushels lower with tighter supplies and lower forecast gasoline consumption for 2011and 2012. Projected corn exports for 2011/12 are reduced 150 million bushels with wheat feeding expected to increase. Ending stocks are projected 156 million bushels lower at 714 million. The stocks to-use ratio is projected at 5.4 percent, compared with last month’s projection of 6.4 percent. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on each end of the range.
Soybean supplies for 2011/12 are reduced as lower forecast production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks. Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 73.8 million acres, down 0.5 million (using rounded data) mainly reflecting reductions for South Dakota. The first survey-based yield forecast of 41.4 bushels per acre is 2.0 bushels below last month’s trend yield projection and 2.1 bushels below last year’s yield. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced exports and crush. Soybean exports are reduced 95 million bushels to 1.4 billion mainly due to the lower crop and increased projected supplies in South America this fall. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on lower domestic soybean meal use. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.50 to $14.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355 to $385 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54.5 to 58.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 08/11 at 08:07 AM | Permalink
Comments
Posted by: Jib at August 11, 2011 3:03PM
Corn harvested acres down 500 thousand acres from June’s Acreage report. The states with changes were: Kansas, -300; Oklahoma, -100 and Texas -100. The numbers appear to reflect the drought. There does not appear to an accounting to reflect any additional flooding. Are there more flooded harvested acres in the cards, was they all caught in the June Acreage Report or did planted acres increase to offset flooded harvest acres?
Soybean harvested acres also does not appear to catch any addition Missouri/Mississippi flooding. The US harvested soybean acres in down 435 thousand acres from the June Acreage Report. The states with changes are: South Dakota, -190; Oklahoma -160; North Dakota, -50 and Texas -35. It is a little surprising that more double crop states of the South and South West did not show up on the decline list.
Jib aka Gibberish