Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Crop Yield Estimates Are On The Horizon
If you were miffed at the quality of the sweet corn in your garden, you might prepare to be miffed at the corn in your field. Both had the same environment in which to pollinate, and if your sweet corn had some gaps on the ear, your field corn may look the same. With erratic kernel set throughout the Midwest, if you find a good ear if you might save it to enter in the state fair next summer. Temperature and moisture combined are needed for good kernel development, and the crop still has a long ways to go.
As indicated by the Crop Progress Reports from around the Cornbelt Monday Afternoon, crop quality has another month to go before it is ready for drydown and harvest. Iowa State University agronomist Roger Elmore says kernels are still building dry matter, “kernels contain about 45 percent of their dry matter at dent and normally another month is necessary to complete the crop’s development. Fortunately the weather outlook for the next 10 days indicates that temperatures are likely to be on the low side of normal in the Corn Belt.”
Iowa State meteorologist Elwynn Taylor says any temperature moderation will be welcome, but will not make ears get any bigger, “Most areas in Iowa will have a reprieve from the heat during the next 10 days. However, the reprieve will not restore the loss of potential crop yield that was incurred by faulty pollination or by the accelerated pace of grain maturity. Areas south of I-80 will likely return to above normal temperature during the week of Aug 16-22. Precipitation will be normal to dry from west to east across the Corn Belt.”
Taylor says, “Overall the possibility of trend or above trend yield diminished significantly in the majority of the Cornbelt crop reporting districts. According to my analysis of weather risk, it is not likely that the US corn yield will exceed 153 bushels per acre, and if the USDA forecasts that yield level, it is too high.”
USDA will be releasing the August 1 Crop report at 7:30 am Cornbelt Time on August 11.
The market is looking for a 2011 corn crop of 13.038 billion bushels, which is based on an average yield of 155.2 bushels per acre. (Do you agree?) In July, the National Ag Statistics Service forecast a crop of 13.470 billion, based on trend yield and estimated acreage from the June 30 report. The average yield at the time was 158.7 bushels per acre. The market is also looking for a carryover of 923 million bushels at the end of the month, and a carryout of 741 million bushels a year later, based on use of the new crop. That would be a decline of 129 million from USDA’s last estimate in July.
The market is also looking for 3.174 billion bushels of soybeans, with a yield of 42.8 bushels per acre. That compares to 3.225 billion estimated by USDA in July on a 43.4 bushel yield. Old crop stocks are estimated at 223 million at the end of the month and 172 million a year from now.
The market expects USDA to estimate all-wheat production at 2.085 billion bushels, down from 2.106 billion in July. Current year wheat stocks are expected to come in at 671 million bushels, nearly unchanged from 670 million in July.
Summary:
Corn development will continue for another month with about half of the dry matter in place now. Estimates of the size of the crop are now taking center stage, with many in the mid-50 bushel pr acre range, which generates a 13 billion bushel crop, short of the expected consumption. While old crop carryout is expected to be just under one billion bushels, new crop carryout a year from now will be less.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 08/10 at 10:41 PM | Permalink