Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Hot and Dry Weather Will Take Its Toll On Yield Prospects.
There was no surprise on Monday when crop conditions declined. The 17% of the crop that was considered excellent was shaved to 16% this week. Last week’s 52% that was considered good has fallen to 50%. The declining quality has rolled downhill into the fair and poor categories as the heat takes its toll across the Cornbelt.
When USDA’s Crop Progress Report was issued Monday the corn was roasting in 90 to 100 degree heat, with little moisture relief in sight. 35% of the crop was pollinating, a 150% increase from the prior week, but only half of the amount of a year earlier.
Ohio State University agronomist Peter Thomison says the multiple stressors on the corn will be felt at the elevator this fall, “If we’re looking at temperatures above 90 degrees sustained over a week, combined with soil moisture deficits, the impact on corn could be devastating,” he said. “These high temperatures alone may not jeopardize pollination, but in conjunction with water stress they can result in significant kernel abortion after pollination, during early grain fill. So, the ovules may get pollinated, but if we have inadequate moisture, the kernels will just abort and we’ll see tip dieback.” And he added, “The long-term forecast, to be brutally honest, is not promising,” he said. “Some people will talk about maturity this year, but I’m more afraid the crop may just die of moisture stress in August.”
As national crop consultants slowly lower their projections for the total crop, they look at models driven by temperature and other weather conditions. University of Illinois marketing specialist Darrel Good says, “Average July temperatures in the corn belt may rank among the highest since 1960. In addition to the high temperatures, corn yield potential may be threatened by the expanding area of dryness over the last few weeks. For the first half of July, precipitation was well below average in large portions of Illinois and Indiana. Portions of southeastern Iowa, northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan have also been relatively dry. Precipitation over the past 30 days was below normal in large portions of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and southern Wisconsin.”
If crop ratings continue to decline, what will that mean for the relatively high amount of corn that is wanted by the market? Good says the national average yield could be down to the level that would be considered tight, “The most recent projection, released on July 12, forecasts consumption at 13.5 billion bushels, 195 million bushels above expected consumption during the current marketing year. Stocks at the end of the 2011-12 marketing year are projected at 870 million bushels, or 6.4 percent of projected use. Based on the forecast of 84.9 million acres to be harvested, a yield below 156.5 bushels would force a reduction in the projected level of consumption. A continuation of relatively high livestock and ethanol prices, along with growing Chinese demand, suggests that high corn prices would be required to curtail consumption.”
Good and his Illinois colleague Scott Irwin analyzed several years with similar weather patterns, and found an average yield below the 158. 7 bushels predicted last by USDA. They contend that corn yields are still very much uncertain, but in years with a hot and dry July the balance of the growing season has also taken its toll from the national yield. But they report that yield prospects are widely variable due to some states having better weather than others.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 07/20 at 12:53 AM | Permalink