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Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Corn and Bean Crops Held Steady, But Prepare For More Carryout.


Ahead of Tuesday’s USDA July Supply-Demand Report, the National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that 14% of the national corn crop had tasseled and was showing silks, and held steady with a 69% good to excellent rating.  Tuesday morning’s report is expected to show a slowing demand for US commodities, implementing many of the numbers from the June 30 acreage report into a new crop supply.  The market is anticipating old-crop corn stocks at 911 million bushels up from 730 million on June 9, and new-crop corn stocks are expected to rise to 1.013 billion bushels, up from 695 million in June.  For Soybeans, the market is looking for old-crop soybean stocks of 193 million bushels up from 180 million on June 9, and new-crop soybean stocks are expected to come in at 172 million bushels, down from 190 million last month, due to lesser acreage planted this year.

The corn supply continues to build, following USDA’s large acreage estimate, along with improving prospects for yield from the new crop in the field.  Around the Cornbelt, many states are reporting crop progress, although it remains one to two weeks behind the rate set last year.  21% of the beans are blooming, compared to 33% at this time for the 5 year average.  65% of the beans are in good to excellent condition.

The percentage of corn silked increased to 27% from 8% the previous week. The five-year average is 41%. 67 % of the corn is rated good to excellent.  99% of the Soybeans had emerged, same as last year.  64% of the beans are rated good to excellent.  Soybeans blooming 17% up from 6% but less than the 40% at this time last year and 3% were setting pods.  Average topsoil moisture was 60% adequate and 24% surplus. 

4% of the corn crop has silked compared with 58% last year.  Corn condition is rated 59% good to excellent compared with 62% last year at this time.  15% of the soybean acreage is blooming compared with 44% last year and 24% for the 5-year average. Soybean condition is rated 58% good to excellent compared with 62% last year at this time.  Topsoil is 69% adequate and 13% surplus.

Just 4% of Iowa’s corn crop has begun to tassel and 1% has begun to silk. In an average year over one-quarter of the corn crop would be tasseling and 13% would be silking. Corn condition is reported at 82% good to excellent. 35% of the soybean crop is blooming, behind the previous year and five-year average of 43%. Soybean condition is reported at 80% good to excellent.  This was Iowa’s driest week in nine weeks.  Topsoil moisture is 79% adequate and 9% surplus

32% of the corn crop has silked, a week behind normal, and behind 49% for both 2010 and the 5-year average. 3% of the crop was in the dough stage, compared to 5% for both last year and the 5-year average. Condition of the crop declined again to 51% good to excellent. 15% of the soybean acreage was blooming, behind 18% last year and 26% for the 5-year average. Condition of the crop declined to 52% good to excellent.  7% of the crop left to be harvested by Sunday, which is ahead of last year and the 5-year average when there was 9% left.
Kansas again saw hot weather with temperatures over 100 in many areas and only scattered rain last week which contributed to the continued decline in the condition of most row crops.  Topsoil moisture supplies improved slightly to 32% very short, 25% short, 42% adequate, and 1% surplus. 

Corn is 74% fair to good, but corn leaves began to curl as farmers wrapped up nitrogen application on fields.  Beans are 79% fair to good, but they are short. Other crops were starting to show signs of moisture stress. Farmers were gearing up for wheat harvest if they had not started already.  Topsoil 85% short to adequate

Corn height averaged 39 inches, compared to 59 inches last year, and the condition is 72% good to excellent.  Soybean height is 10 inches compared to 16 last year.  16% are blooming, compared to 33% last year.  Soybean condition is 67% good to excellent.  Minnesota recorded another week of warm temperatures and adequate soil moisture.  Topsoil moisture is 21% surplus, with the balance mostly adequate. 

44% of the corn is silked and beyond, 1 week behind last year, and 4 days behind the 5-year historic average (normal).  Corn condition was 66% good to excellent.  Southwestern Missouri has only 10% of the corn crop rated in the good and excellent categories.  Soybean emergence was nearly finished with 96% emerged, the same as last year, but 4 days ahead of normal.  11% of the soybeans were blooming and beyond, and that was 5 days behind last year and normal.  Soybean condition was only 65% good to excellent.  Topsoil moisture declined from last week to 67% adequate to surplus.

Corn pollination was beginning with the first tassels and silked ear shoots being seen. 9% was silked compared to 23% last year. Corn condition is rated 84% good to excellent, about the same as last year, but above 76% average.  Irrigated corn conditions rated 85 percent good to excellent and dryland corn rated 84%.  Soybean condition rated 81% good to excellent, about the same as last year and above the 72% average.  Soybeans blooming were at 19%, behind 35% last year and 34% average.

North Dakota2% of the corn crop had reached the silking stage, compared to 8% last year and 7% for the five-year average.  Soybeans were 17% blooming compared to 38% last year.  Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 96% adequate to surplus. 

1% of corn was silked (tasseled), 39% behind last year and behind the five-year average by 16 percent. Soybeans blooming were reported at 4%, and that is 35% behind last year and 27% behind the five-year average.  Corn is reported 80% fair to good, and beans are 82% fair to good.  Topsoil moisture is 60% adequate and 30% short.

South DakotaAverage corn height is now 32 inches, behind 45 inches for the previous year.  No corn is silked yet, with only a 32 inch average height, 76% of the corn is good to excellent.  Soybean progress jumped this week, with 24% now blooming, slightly behind the 5-year average of 31%.  70% of the soybeans are rated good to excellent.  Much of the state was hot and dry, which contributed to good crop development. Topsoil is 94% adequate to surplus. 

The heat and humidity proved beneficial for corn, reported as an average of 43 inches high across the state, compared to 57 inches last year. Yet, there were several reports that corn fields were starting to curl up and show stress as a lack of moisture was evident. This was especially true for late-planted corn and fields on sandy soils.  Corn is rated 78% good to excellent.  Soybeans perked up this past week as several fields had just begun to bloom. Across the state, 13% of soybeans were reported as blooming, compared to 19% last year. Spraying remained a priority for many soybean fields containing weeds. Similar to corn, soybeans in areas lacking precipitation were also showing stress. Beans are rated 75% good to excellent



Posted by Stu Ellis on 07/12 at 12:00 AM | Permalink

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