Saturday, July 02, 2011
Cornbelt Update: A weekend freebie
• Costs of corn production in 2010 were less in 2009 say IL ag economists who studied 1,600 farms with wide ranging soil types. Variable costs were anywhere from 7% to 20% less for corn, with a per bushel rate of $3.20 to $3.07 on soil ratings of 86 and up, and costs of $3.34 to $3.57 for soil ratings of 85 and lower. Land costs added 80¢ to $1 per bushel.
• Costs of bean production in 2010 were less in 2009 say IL ag economists who studied 1,600 farms with wide ranging soil types. Variable costs were anywhere from 3% to 10% less for beans, with a per bushel rate of $5.63 to $6.11 on soil ratings of 86 and up, and costs of $6.11 to $7.35 for soil ratings of 85 and lower. Land costs added $2.50 to $3 per bushel.
• With N rates steady and corn yields rising, NE agronomists reporting that nitrogen use efficiency is rising. It was 0.84 lb of N per bushel of corn in 2010, compared to 1.5 lb of N in the 1970’s. They say it does not indicate a bushel only needs 0.84 lb, since there are other sources of N, such as mineralized soil organic matter, residuals from prior fertilization, plus credits for legumes and manure, which contribute to the total need 1.1 to 1.2 lb per bu.
• Even though N prices are high, NE soil specialist Richard Ferguson says, “In 2010, the value of the crop was even higher, resulting in a price ratio of 17:1. To avoid either deficient or excessive rates of N application, the price ratio range recommendations for corn is confined between 4:1 and 10:1. 2011 N rates should have been slightly higher than in recent years.”
• Meteorologist Elwynn Taylor uses Twitter to say La Nina is “almost” gone and neutral conditions are likely for the rest of the year, but always with the chance for re-emergence, “Even with that caution, this report is a relief; it implies increased possibility of favorable Midwest crop yields, diminishing of excess moisture in the upper Missouri River basin, and a general stabilizing of the erratic weather experienced world-wide over the past 7 months.”
• As the summer solstice is now in the rear view mirror, IL crop production specialist Emerson Nafziger offers a trivia question: Of sunlight, temperature, and moisture, which has the least effect on corn plant productivity? (The answer will soon become apparent.)
• Early planted corn should be at full canopy, but Nafziger says with corn leaves letting light pass through and uneven distribution, some sunlight still hits the ground. At tasseling the corn is catching the most light possible at 95%. Narrow or twin rows only have a brief advantage over 30 in. rows intercepting sunlight, and at full canopy it is only 10%.
• Nafziger says sunlight data reaching the ground is measured in terms of energy, with a typical sunny day equivalent to 33MW hours per acre, but corn only converts 2% of sunlight energy to dry matter. He says 2008 and 2010 had high sunlight levels and 2009 had low, with yields highest in 2008 and lowest in 2010, so sunlight is the answer to the trivia question.
• Western bean cutworm moths are fluttering, looking for corn leaves to lay their eggs and let you adopt their offspring. The only evidence is a white egg mass on the upper surface of top leaves. Larvae will crawl into the whorl looking for pollen to survive, so corn near tasseling is quite susceptible. Purdue entomologists say the proteins expressed in Herculex, Smartstax, and Viptera have shown to be very effective, so focus scouting on other fields.
• It has been a few years since you were concerned with European corn borer (ECB), since Bt hybrids knocked them down. But some non-Bt corn could be quite susceptible, and if you have found damage, what is the threshold for treatment, since economics have changed? Corn prices have gone up and crop protection chemical prices may have gone down.
• Calculate your cost of ECB control, with 180 bu. corn at $7, a $15 insecticide application with 75% control on 35% of the plants having 1 live larva per whorl. Purdue entomologists compute that as: $18.19/A (preventable $ loss/A) - $15.00/A (cost of control) = $3.19/A return from application of control. The most likely decision in this case would be spray away!”
• Corn roots may be hosting corn rootworm larvae, which are hatching throughout most of the Cornbelt, based on growing degree days. Your use of Bt corn has helped reduce numbers, but some may be developing immunity. Dig some corn plants, wash the roots, and count the larvae that float to the surface of the water in your bucket. Then plan for next year. IA St. entomologist Erin Hodgson says you really need to scout every field, regardless of the seed.
• Another crawler may be feasting in your corn, says IA St. entomologist Erin Hodgson:
Black cutworms are reaching maturity in most areas. But if you have young corn, cutworms over ¾ of an inch, and 5% of the field is cut, you have reached the treatment threshold. Fully developed cutworms will stop feeding, and treatment would only be a waste of money.
• Soybeans will flower for about 3 to 5 weeks, says WI soybean specialist Shawn Conley, depending on planting date and environment, but 20% to 80% will be aborted, with the early and late flowers most likely in that group. Flowering is considered the R2 growth stage and that is the last part of the growth cycle that will accept glyphosate says Conley. He says Monsanto has restricted the appropriate time for glyphosate to end when the R3 growth stage begins. That is when one of the top four nodes with a fully developed leaf has a 3/16 inch long pod. The application of glyphosate at that point or later is considered “off-label.”
• Flowering soybeans may be damaged by sprayer wheels says Shawn Conley. He and his colleagues report “an adequate soybean stand (more than 100,000 plants per acre) planted in late April though mid-May can compensate for wheel tracks made when a field is sprayed at R1. Yield loss can occur, however, when wheel tracks are made at R1 or later in thin soybean stands (less than 100,000 plants per acre) or late planted soybeans.”
• Soybean production may increase significantly in future years because of human nutritional needs and increased livestock feed requirements, but yields may be continually threatened by current and future pests. IL soybean researcher Glen Hartman wants farmers to be on the lookout for red leaf blotch that has cut soybean yields by 50% in Africa, but has not yet been found in the US. He says aphids, rust, and SCN will also do their part to hurt bean yields.
• Speaking of aphids, some have been captured in MI and WI traps, with low numbers seen so far in MI, MN & PA. Efforts to find them in northern IL have not produced any. IL entomologist Mike Gray says rains may have contributed to the lack of aphids so far, but it is too early to ignore the possibility for this year. He recommends vigilant soybean scouting.
• You may have Japanese beetles (I found 10 on 6/26), which means their damage will have to be monitored. MO entomologist Wayne Bailey provides some hope, saying, “Beneficial biological pathogens and agents will eventually slow these expanding populations, resulting in annual population fluctuations at levels below peak populations experienced in earlier years.” Until then, he provides a list of non-biological agents to control them.
• Wayne Bailey also wonders if you have noticed larger populations of stink bugs. He says numbers captured in central MO are 6-10 times higher than in the past 25 years. While green stinkbugs are noted for damage to soybean pods, he says brown stinkbugs will feed on the underside of developing corn ears, diminish the kernels, and cause “drooping” corn ears.
• Farm Bill debate began in the House Ag Committee with crop insurance chief Bill Murphy saying 250 mil. acres are covered including 80% of major crops and 75% of specialty crops. In 1994 USDA liability was $14 bil., but today is $100 bil. 90% of farmers purchase buy-up levels. $6 bil. was cut from program cost in 2010 and $4 bil. used to pay down the deficit.
• How are your Deere GPS units working? If they are not working well, blame the FCC for allowing a high speed internet service to use the same frequencies. Deere is complaining on your behalf, saying 250,000 precision GPS receivers are affected. LightSquared, which set up the network for Leap Wireless and Best Buy, contests the Deere claims, but says it can resolve the problems if Deere technicians agree to meet with theirs. Deere says yields are affected.
• Farmers should sort out the impact of these headlines. The World Bank this week opened a $4 bil. account for use by developing countries in placing hedges to protect against food price inflation. And World Bank President Robert Zoellick says a global system of food reserves was “not the best policy.” Agriculture has learned how to adjust to US farm policy, but global food policies, along with volatile markets, will require more risk management.
• A meeting of the corn industry will be convened by the CME before it pushes harder to raise daily trading limits from 30¢ up to 40¢. The original 50¢ proposal received only pushback. Continued information gathering will continue until early August. A major problem for elevators becomes higher margin outlay during volatility for forward contracted corn.
• Tariffs may be high, but delivery reliability is improving for rail carriers, according to the Soy Transportation Coalition. It surveyed buyers of soybeans and soy products about rail service and found a 10% increase in satisfaction over last year. UP, BNSF, and CN got the highest ratings. Others rated included CP, CSX, KCS, and NS. Read the full rail service report.
• Friday’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report was no surprise to the livestock trade, with numbers in the range predicted. The breeding herd on June 1 was 100.3% of 2010, market hog inventory was 100.6%, so MO livestock economist Ron Plain says don’t expect much.
• Ron Plain reports cash hog prices reached another record with carcass prices hitting $1/lb for the first time ever. The national average negotiated price Friday
was $100.77/cwt, up more than $8 in the past week. He says the carcass price was 101.5% of pork cutout value.
• With the controversy surrounding GIPSA, OH St. is advising holders of pork production contracts subject to GIPSA rules that 4 elements must be included in contracts signed after June 18, 2008. Those deal with cancelation, capital investments, arbitration, and dispute resolution venues. The ag law specialist says an amendment will likely not be sufficient, and the agreement must be re-executed. Violations carry an $11,000 fine.
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Posted by Stu Ellis on 07/02 at 04:46 PM | Permalink