Thursday, June 30, 2011
USDA Acreage Numbers Have Surprises
USDA surprised the market Thursday morning by projecting 92.3 million acres were planted to corn this year. The market had been anticipating about 90.7 million, and no more than 91.5 million acres. For soybeans, however, the numbers went the other way. The market was anticipating76.5 million acres, but USDA says only 75.2 million were planted. While the USDA reporting indicated the spring was wet and crop planting was delayed, it did not gauge the acreage that has been lost to flooding.
The June 30 Planted Acreage Report estimated “corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 92.3 million acres, up 5 percent from last year, and the second highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944, behind only the 93.5 million acres planted in 2007. Iowa continues to lead all States with 14.2 million acres, the second highest acreage on record for that State. Notable increases in acreage from last year are also reported in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Growers expect to harvest 84.9 million acres for grain, up 4 percent from last year.” Other Cornbelt states planted: IL 12.5 mil., IN 5.9 mil. OH 3.5 mil, NE 10 mil. MN 8.1 mil. And SD 5.2 mil.
USDA’s comment on the lateness of planting does not indicate the impact on yield, but says, “By May 29, eighty-six percent of the intended corn acreage had been seeded, compared to 97 percent complete at the same time last year and 95 percent for the 5-year average. Planting was virtually complete by June 12.”
Regarding soybeans, USDA reported, “The 2011 soybean planted area is estimated at 75.2 million acres, down 3 percent from 2010. Planted area decreased from last year in 21 out of 31 States and is the lowest since 2007. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.3 million acres, also down 3 percent from 2010. Severe flooding during April contributed to delayed soybean planting this spring. Heavy snowmelt created flooding along the upper and middle Mississippi River, while heavy rains induced flooding across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South. During the last week of April, historic flooding occurred in southeastern Missouri and neighboring areas as the flood crest
moved south.”
Within the Cornbelt, soybean acreage cuts included 200,000 acres in IL, 600,000 acres in IA, 400,000 acres in NE, 200,000 acres in MN, 400,000 acres in KS.
USDA’s grain stocks report indicated lower corn and higher bean stocks compared to last year. Corn stocks were project at 3.67 billion bushels and beans at 619 million bushels. Corn use was less in the last quarter than the same quarter of 2010, indicating that prices had been rationing demand.
The next Supply demand report in 2 weeks will forecast the carryout that will remain at the end of August.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 06/30 at 08:31 AM | Permalink