Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Slow Corn Emergence May Delay Harvest Further
Monday’s USDA crop progress report indicated that 79% of the corn had been planted, and while that was behind the 92% planted at this time last year, it was getting closer to the 87% at this time of year for the past 5 years. However, corn planting is one issue, and emergence is another. Even though some states have dried out from persistent rains, continued cool temperatures have kept seed corn underground and unwilling to be greeted by cold mornings above ground. Most of the corn remains below the surface with only 45% emerged nationally, as of May 22. And there are some problem spots that are holding down the average, and several of them are key corn production states.
Illinois recorded below normal temperatures and rainfall last week, and with less rain, more planting was achieved. While corn planting is nearly complete in some locations in the northern half of the state, only one third of the corn is planted in the southern third of the state. Emergence is behind with the Illinois average at 56% emerged, compared to 86% last year and the 5 year average of 66%. The average height is 3 inches, half of the pace of 2010 and the condition is rated 79% fair to good. Surplus moisture remains a problem with the eastern one third of IL from Kankakee on the north to the Ohio River on the south, where one third or less of the corn has emerged. That region in 2010 produced 612 million bushels, representing 35% of the Illinois corn crop. Other areas are still planting around wet patches in the field or replanting acres that had been previously flooded.
Indiana also shifted corn planting to a higher gear with planting now half complete. But only 20% of the corn has emerged, compared to 78% last year and 54% for the five year average. The Indiana ag statisticians report was similar to that of Illinois, saying, “By area, 57% of the crop has been planted in the north, 48% in the central region and 35% in the south.” Continued rain and wet fields have continued to challenge farmers. Most weather reporting sites in the southern half of Indiana are reporting rainfall totals of 14 inches or more since April 1, about twice the normal amount. Apparently concerned about late planting and throwing typical hybrids into frost jeopardy in the fall, this week’s Indiana crop and weather bulletin contained Purdue recommendations for shifting to earlier maturing hybrids.
Ohio has been slow to dry out, with continuous thunderstorms rolling up the Ohio River Valley for many weeks. 86% of Ohio has surplus moisture. Rainfall continued to be above normal for the past week, with less than one day available for field work. Since the first of April, Ohio farmers have only had 8.4 days suitable for field work, compared to nearly 26 by this time last year. Going back to April 1, the Ohio Crop Reporting Districts have recorded 10 to 16 inches of rain, anywhere from 4 to 8 inches above the average. Since only 11% of the corn has been planted, only 2% has emerged. That compares to 72% emerged at this time last year and 58% for the five year average. In 2010, Ohio produced 533 million bushels of corn.
The Dakotas have also been a challenge for farmers who want to plant spring crops. North Dakota dried out enough in the past week to jump from 14% to 49% planted, but emergence is only at 7% and the 5 year average has been 33% for this point in the year. While seasonal moisture has not been excessive, a late snowmelt and cold soil temperatures have been major elements in delayed planting. Nevertheless, North Dakota still has 51% surplus moisture. 51% of the crop has not been planted in a state that produced 248 million bushels of corn last year and remains a key state for the US to reach sufficient corn supplies this year. South Dakota climbed last week from 44% to 73% planted, but only 18% has emerged, as of May 22. The state has suffered from excessive precipitation and soil temperatures below the typical point of corn germination. Growing degree days have been 100 to 200 behind expectations for this point in the year.
Elsewhere around the Cornbelt, Minnesota is only reporting 23% emergence, which is significant delay for the nation’s fourth largest corn producing state, and compares to 74% at this time last year.
Summary:
Although corn planting is well behind schedule for this time of year, corn emergence is even further behind. Wet soils have prevented planting, but cold soils have prevented emergence. Many of the problem spots can be found in states where significant corn production would be expected, but also in states which are being counted on this year to bolster new crop production.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 05/25 at 12:00 AM | Permalink