Wednesday, May 18, 2011
If You Are Behind In Fieldwork, Check Up On Your Cornbelt Colleagues
It’s the latter half of May, nearly all corn should be planted and the Cornbelt should have a strong percentage of the soybean crop in the ground. In theory that is. In reality, the planting rate remains behind the five year average, but that is what 24 row planters are for, and that’s why there are head lights on farm equipment. With small and infrequent weather windows available, every Cornbelt farmer remembers Grand Dad’s adage of “make hay while the sun shines.” Grand Dad would have put up hay at night if the baler had been wired for lights.
USDA’s weekly crop progress report underscores the great variability in the weather this year. From a near desert in the southern Great Plains to the swamps in the Eastern Cornbelt, this has been an unfriendly year for crop production. While the market sold off last week in reaction to the forecast of larger crops, grain traders returned as buyers on Tuesday as Cornbelt crop progress is less than desired.
ILLINOIS: Days suitable for fieldwork increased to 4.7. Topsoil moisture still 41% surplus. Temperatures were above normal with a statewide average of 66.6 degrees, which was the second warmest week of the year. Corn condition is 80% fair to good. Soybean planting moved forward though behind schedule. Field work remained on hold where fields were still saturated with water or flooded. Early week warm temperatures allowed wheat to improve, though some wheat fields reportedly looked bad due to the excess moisture this season.
INDIANA: Days suitable for fieldwork totaled 3.8, with topsoil moisture 51% surplus and subsoil moisture 49% surplus. Corn is 29% planted, compared to 85% in 2010, and 66% for the 5 year avg. Soybeans are 6% planted, compared to 44% I 2010, and 30% for the 5 year avg. Winter wheat is jointed 87%, and 25% headed, both behind prior year. Farmers accomplished a great deal this week working late into the night with more days suitable for field work than any other week this spring. However, some eastern and southern counties have remained too wet for much field work to be done thus far. Planting of corn is approximately 25 days later than last year and 15 days behind the 5-year average pace while planting of soybeans is about 23 days later than last year and 15 days behind the 5-year average.
IOWA: Days suitable for fieldwork fell to only 4.2. Topsoil moisture is 80% adequate, and 18% surplus. Strong winds early in the week brought record high temperatures to much of Iowa but that was quickly followed by below average temperatures the latter part of the week. When the weather was dry, planting progressed rapidly; however, precipitation brought progress to a halt after midweek. Although heavy rains and hail were received over parts of the State, the precipitation and warm early week temperatures promoted crop emergence.
KANSAS: Days suitable for fieldwork were 5.6. Topsoil moisture is 59% short to very short. Subsoil moisture is 58% short to very short. Winter wheat is 97%, jointed which is right on average. 24% of the wheat has some degree of wind damage, 12% insect damage, and 18% has some disease damage. Soybeans are 4% emerged, which is average, and sunflower planting is also on average. Scattered showers across most of Kansas last week were a welcomed relief to many, but the rain missed several areas of the state that have needed it the most and that continue to be very dry. Temperatures were very warm early last week, cooling down the rest of the week but still averaging above normal. Highs were mostly in the 90’s and reached the century mark at several locations. Livestock producers have been busy turning cattle out on to pasture, amidst concern over having enough feed to last the summer. Some ranchers have started to give cattle supplemental feed on pasture, while others are choosing to cull down their herds to reduce the strain on dry pastures.
MICHIGAN: Days suitable for fieldwork numbered 4 in the past week, with topsoil 49% surplus. 42% of the barley is planted and 12% emerged. It has been a slow start to this year’s planting, but producers finally able to make progress this week in dryer fields. Several fields became water logged and had wash outs. Some farmers used secondary tillage before planting to help fields dry out. Soybeans were planted as quickly as possible when conditions allowed. Oats and barley planted and emergence continued. Weed control in all fields is a growing concern.
MINNESOTA: Days suitable for fieldwork were only 3.0 with topsoil moisture 64% adequate, and 36% surplus. 59% of the corn ground has been prepared, compared to 100% 2010, and the 5 year average at 88%. 17% of the fields have been prepared for soybeans, compared to 70% last year and 54% of the 5 year average. Planting progress was made this past week in spite of frequent rain showers, with planting was taking place around wet spots. Temperatures returned to average statewide after below-average readings prevailed throughout the spring.
MISSOURI: Days suitable for fieldwork totaled only 3.7. Topsoil moisture is 56% adequate, and 42% surplus. Pasture condition is 87% fair to good. Flood waters began to disperse after last week’s massive flooding in the southeast district. Areas with good drainage and higher elevation returned to planting. Corn replanting continued. Winter wheat condition continued to decline slightly due to wet conditions.
NEBRASKA: Days suitable for fieldwork were 4.0, with 80% of the topsoil having adequate moisture. Corn planting advanced to over 80 percent complete which is near average. Planting of soybeans is ahead of average. Soybeans are 2% emerged, which is about average. Wheat is 71% jointed, about average. Record high temperatures early in the week were followed by unseasonably cool and wet conditions which caused spring planting progress to slow.
Strong winds made herbicide application difficult.
NORTH DAKOTA: Only 2.9 days were suitable for fieldwork 2.9. Topsoil moisture is 60% adequate, 39% surplus. Subsoil moisture is 56% adequate, 43% surplus. Durum is 3% planted, compared to 34% in 2010, and 46% for the 5 year average. (There was no report on any corn or soybeans planted. All of the other crops were well behind the average in being planted for this time of year.) Rain and cooler temperatures hindered fieldwork across the state. A week after fieldwork began in most areas, scattered storms returned to further saturate already wet fields. Planting continued at a slow pace.
OHIO: Days suitable for fieldwork were only 2.3 with top soil moisture rated 68% surplus. Corn is 7% planted, compared to 83% in 2010, and 70% for the 5 year average. 1% of the corn is emerged, compared to 57% last year and typically 39%. Soybeans are 3% planted, compared to 44% in 2010 which was the 5 year average. Winter wheat condition is 77% fair to good, with 88% jointed, which is about average
SOUTH DAKOTA: Only 3.7 days were suitable for fieldwork, with topsoil and subsoil moisture 62% adequate, and 37% surplus. 19% of the winter wheat is in the boot stage, slightly behind last year and the average for this time of year. 59% of the barley has been seeded with 10% emerged. Spring wheat is 71% in good condition. Small grains and row crops all made advances in the percent planted over the last week, but are still behind last year’s progress.
WISCONSIN: Days suitable for fieldwork numbered 3.9, with topsoil moisture rated 68% adequate, and 30% surplus. Spring tillage is 50% complete. Corn is 35% planted and soybeans are 10% planted. While many farmers were able to get into fields last week, Wisconsin was still far behind the average for planting of oats, corn and soybeans. Across the southern half of the state, planting of corn and soybeans progressed rapidly. However, reports indicated that the rain continued to keep those on heavy soil out of fields across the north.
Summary:
Unlike 2010, no state averages are ahead of the 5 year average, and many are woefully behind, particularly those areas where USDA has counted on to provide a significant boost in corn acres. Surplus moisture in fields and continuous showers have contributed to the delays in planting and caused some deterioration in crop quality, particularly to small grains.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 05/18 at 12:00 AM | Permalink
Comments
Posted by: Jib at May 19, 2011 2:02PM
To prevent plant or not to prevent plant; hope it is NOT the question or the WAGing of a Cubs fan
Let’s hope progress is made so the decision to not plant a crop and collect the prevented planting provision of our federal crop insurance is not an option. Should the final plant date (as defined by the crop insurance provisions) come and some of our crops remain unplanted there is 3 general options:
-Not plant anything (except a cover crop) and collect 60% (if buy-up option was not elected) of our spring crop insurance guarantee.
-Continue to plant the intended crop with the insurance guarantee declining on those late planted acres
-Switch crops to one that performs better with the later planting date
(Delayed and Prevented Planting Provisions, February 2011 William Edwards, Iowa State University)
The answer is a matter of projecting yields times projected prices minus cost. The option with the highest net income is generally the winner. The variables of price and yield make the gross revenue estimate an educated guess at best. Many Universities have some guidelines on the expected yield declines from expected yield with delayed planting. The challenge is; “What is the expected yield with a normal planting date?” (The weather events that have caused the delayed planting in the first place make the year anything from normal to begin with.) There are tools available and more surely coming to help with this decision.
One factor missing from most tools is the potential for an indemnity payment from a crop insurance policy. This factor seems to need more consideration when a larger percentage of the crop is subject to yield reductions from delayed planting; after the optimum planting date. As planting is delayed the potential yield drops closer to the guarantee. A subject farm from Darke County, Ohio provides the following data: APH 153, Mid-point expected yield in a “normal” year 171 and the chance of “triggering” a yield indemnity with coverage of 75% is one in sixteen years. Should the example farm plant 10% of its corn prior to May 20 and 30% each week till finished on the week of June 10th, the expected weighted yield, from Ohio State’s estimates, should be about 80% of a timely planted rate. This would double the chances of an indemnity payment. The average indemnity, should it occur, would be $108 per acre, on all acres in that insurance unit; timely planted and late planted. Should all the corn be planted the week of June 10th the expected yield would be 72% of timely. The chances for an indemnity would increase to a little better than 1 in 3. The average indemnity, should it occur, would be around $92 per acre. As planting progress moves past the final planting date (an insurance term only) of June 5, in this example, the guarantee on those late planted acres drops 1% per day (that necessitates good planting records) but the average yield decline is projected at 1.25% per day, increasing the chance of an insurance payment. This example assumes enterprise units. Basic and better yet optional units may not have the delusion of the timely planted acres, possibly making them more attractive to late planting than enterprise units. (The same dynamics occur with revenue protection as noted here with yield protection when fall price is above the spring. The variability of price makes for a more difficult illustration. Revenue coverage with harvest option exclusion requires larger yield declines than yield protection to “trigger” an indemnity when fall prices are over spring.)
When looking at late plant or prevented plant options; still weeks away, an inclusion of possible federal crop insurance indemnity payment maybe worthwhile. The problem is these estimates will probably be no better than the production and price estimates; a WAG (Wild A_ _ Guess). The option to plant something, the original crop or a later crop, may still be better than the prevented planted option, depending upon one’s individual situation. So at least look at possible outcomes. Maybe it is important to note this point view comes from a Cubs fan; we get tired of waiting till next year.
Jib aka Gibberish