Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Corn Planting Progress Is Made With Drier Weather
Monday’s big news was that Iowa farmers planted 62% of their intended corn crop during the week that ended Sunday, and now that state is 69% planted which matched the five year average. Yes, they put in some long hours and did not waste much daylight. But the real reason for the great advance was the fact the entire state had at least 6 suitable days for fieldwork, with only 7% of the soil having surplus water. That compares to the prior week in Iowa with less than 2 suitable days for fieldwork and 32% of the state having surplus water. Once the weather dries up, agriculture can get a lot of work accomplished.
USDA’s Crop Progress Report was issued Monday, which indicated 40% of the 2011 corn crop is in the ground, thanks to some major efforts by farmers in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri, all of whom had nearly 60% or more of their acreage planted. That compares to only 13% last week.
The weather has been improving in a west to east fashion, so farmers west of the Mississippi are getting the crop planted. With the drying conditions eastbound at an accelerating rate, Illinois farmers raised their progress report to 34% of the crop planted, compared to 93% last year and 62% for the five year average. To the east, Indiana only advanced from 2% to 4% of the corn planted with 71% of the soil still holding surplus moisture, and only 1 day suitable for fieldwork. At the eastern end of the Cornbelt Ohio farmers still have only 2% of the corn planted with less than a day suitable for fieldwork and 91% of the fields bearing surplus moisture.
As would be expected, corn emergence is well behind the 2010 pace and the five year average. As of May 8, 6% of the Illinois corn had emerged, but only 1% each in Iowa and Indiana. None has emerged yet in Minnesota, nor the Dakotas, and only 4% in Nebraska.
North and South Dakota, which hold a major key to the US growing enough corn to meet demand, have been cold and wet and very little has been planted. The reason that the Dakotas are so important is that they hold the key to the extra acres of corn needed to meet the demand. Typical states like Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Indiana are going to plant their normal corn acreage.
But instead of the 88 million acres planted in 2010, the market is demanding 92 million and the additional acres will have to come from non-traditional areas. Even if North Dakota plants an 85 day maturity corn and gets 130 bushels per acre, those bushels will be a major contribution in a year when every kernel will have a price and a home.
Unfortunately, North Dakota farmers have only 3% of the crop planted with none emerged, thanks to a 16 day delay in the average starting point for fieldwork due to 42% surplus soil moisture. There is no coincidence that the forecast is for continued cool and wet weather. In South Dakota 36% of the soil had surplus moisture, and the weekly crop and weather report said “There are no drought issues at this point.” As of Sunday, 17% of the corn crop had been planted but none had emerged, compared to 45% planted last year and 33% for the five year average.
Another headline, though not unexpected, is the lack of soybean planting in the Cornbelt. Southern states like Louisiana (67%), Mississippi (42%), and Arkansas (21%), are making fair progress compared to prior years, but the heavyweight states to the north have barely opened a bag of seed beans. Nebraska has 15% of its soybeans planted, Iowa has 10%, and Kansas has 11%, but the percentages tail off from there with only 2% in Illinois, 7% in Missouri, and only 7% nationwide.
However, if the weather trend continues, the crop report for next Monday could show significant progress, well into the eastern part of the Cornbelt, and maybe to the northwest in the Dakotas. Ohio State University meteorologist Jim Noel says, “The weather pattern is beginning to change.” He says La Nina has performed as expected, and it should end by June with some lingering effects into early summer.
For the balance of May, he is looking for temperatures from normal to above, with rainfall near normal. However, he describes the summer outlook as: “One of the best years to analog historically to may be 2008. The outlook will likely be for near normal rainfall trending to drier than normal by late summer. Temperatures are tricky. Near normal is forecast but anything may go. As soon as we gain confidence in the outlook in the next few weeks we will let you know.”
Summary:
Planting progress was made for the past week, particularly in the western Cornbelt, where Iowa farmers approached 70% completion with corn and 10% of soybeans planted. The weather has been drier in the western Cornbelt, but that pattern is moving eastward, where there has been almost no corn planted either in Indiana or Ohio. The weather forecast is for the La Nina weather pattern to begin fading and end in early summer, with a potentially drier period in the late summer.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 05/10 at 12:00 AM | Permalink