Thursday, April 07, 2011
Buy A Condolence Card And Send It To A Wheat Grower
The headlines at the end of the week will be on the carryout numbers for the 2010 corn and soybean crop. They are expected to decline from March, based on the Quarterly stocks report last week, and the futures market may quickly return to a rationing mentality. But one of the more telling reports from USDA this week was the condition of the winter wheat crop, based on the week that ended April 3rd. It is not pretty.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service resumed its weekly crop progress and condition reports this week, and while cotton, oat, and sorghum planting all received attention, the condition of the winter wheat crop was the most serious of the group. The NASS report summarized the condition of wheat in the 18 primary states as 7% excellent, 30% good, 31% fair, 19% poor, and 13% very poor. It was not the type of wheat you would exhibit at the county fair.
The quality ranges from 95% good to excellent in California down to 61% poor to very poor in Texas. Texas had 12% rated good, but none in the excellent category. Across the winter wheat belt, here is the breakout:
Colorado: 41% fair, but 43% in poor to very poor condition.
Kansas: 27% good, 35% fair, and 24% in poor to very poor condition.
Nebraska: 31% good, 45% fair, and 20% in poor to very poor condition.
Oklahoma: 31% fair, and 53% in poor to very poor condition.
USDA’s March 14 Wheat Outlook reported a year ago, the Kansas wheat crop was 60% good to excellent and only 8% poor to very poor. The 2010 Nebraska wheat crop was had a 49% good to excellent rating at this time of year, with only 8% in the poor to very poor category. Oklahoma had a 65% good to excellent rating on its wheat a year ago, but none of it is there this year.
In the March USDA Supply Demand Report, the demand for US wheat was expected to be 2.45 billion bushels, compared to a 2.2 billion bushel crop. However, questions are being asked about the capacity of the new crop to reach the 2.2 billion bushel mark. A winter with minimal moisture, an early spring break out of dormancy, and now 90 degree heat across the Southern Plains has put stress into the wheat crop. The US Drought Monitor will be updated today (Thursday) and compared to the March 31 map, it should show a growing red, brown and yellow blotch over the Southern wheat belt, with large sections declared to be in severe and extreme drought.
Kansas State University marketing specialist Dan O’Brien told a crowd in Denver on Monday that there were certainly more wheat acres in 2011, but he is unsure about the production prospects. And he suggested that the Central and Southern Plains wheat crop could suffer a 100 million to 200 million bushel shortfall because of the weather problems. Those problems have left short soil moisture conditions in Kansas at 89%, Oklahoma at 85%, Colorado at 77%, and Texas at 94%.
Despite the threats to the 2011 crop, surpluses from the past several years will leave a 34% stocks to use ratio, which is a 126 day supply. That compares to the 60 year low in supply in 2007 when there was only a 13% stocks to use ratio. O’Brien is forecasting a $6.25 average price for the new crop.
Summary:
The winter wheat crop in the US is hurting because of adverse weather. More of the crop in the Southern Plains is rated poor to very poor than is rated good to excellent. Dry conditions continue to reduce the potential yield, which should keep production well below demand for the year. However, past surpluses will ensure an adequate supply.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 04/07 at 12:00 AM | Permalink
Comments
Posted by: Richard Davis at April 7, 2011 9:09AM
One crop that’s not going to be hurting is corn. farmers around here are gearing up to plant and cash in harvest time(keeping fingers crossed):)