Thursday, March 31, 2011
Corn Acres Up, Bean Acres Down, No Major Surprises.
USDA says the 2011 corn acreage will be up 5% from last year, at 92.2 million acres, as farmers responded to higher market prices. With corn prices at a premium to soybeans, soybean acreage will be declining by 1%. That is the essence of today’s Prospective plantings report, which was released along with the second quarter grain stocks report. The numbers follow…
The prospect of 92.178 million planted acres of corn compares to 88.192 million in 2010 and the 91.6 million expected by the market. The trade had projected the number to be in a range of 90.4 to 92.6 million acres. If those acres end up being planted, it would be the second highest acreage since 1944, surpassed only by the 93.5 million in 2007, according to USDA.
Within the primary 12 Cornbelt states, farmers expect to plant 76.55 million acres of corn, compared to 73.1 million last year. That reflects a 5% increase, which was also the national increase. USDA says, “Acreage increases of 250,000 or more are expected in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota. The largest decrease is expected in Texas, down 150,000 acres.” Iowa acreage increased a half million from last year, with Illinois and Minnesota up 200,000, and Indiana steady.
Soybean acreage will see a drop from the 77.404 million acres in 2010 to 76.609 in 2011 according to the Planting intentions report. Of the 12 primary Cornbelt states, 62.25 million acres will be planted, compared to 62.84 million last year. That would be the 3rd largest acreage on record. USDA reports, “Compared with last year, planted acreage declines of 100,000 acres or more are expected in Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Ohio. If realized, the planted area in New York and North Dakota will be the largest on record.”
In the Cornbelt, Iowa farmers will be cutting 400,000 acres from soybeans, which is being shifted to corn. Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota will remain steady in soybean acreage, as the nation drops only 800,000 acres.
Wheat acreage this year is up 8% from last year at 58 million, with a 10% increase in winter wheat and an 8% drop in durum wheat.
Interestingly, with record high cotton prices, acreage will increase 15% from 11.04 million last year to 12.6 million in 2011. Texas dropped off 150,000 corn acres, but will be picking up 548,000 additional cotton acres.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report was also released this morning. Corn stocks are 6.52 billion, a 15% drop from the same report in 2010. Disappearance in the last three months was 3.53 billion, compared to 3.21 billion a year ago. The report is only stocks and does not break out use. Those numbers will be in the next Supply and demand report. The market was expecting about 6.7 billion bushels of corn on hand, slightly more than what USDA reported. The USDA number was at the bottom of the trade range.
Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.25 billion, down 2% from last year, with quarterly use at 1.03 billion, about 4% less than a year ago. The market was expecting 1.29 billion bushels of beans on hand, and the USDA estimate was under the range expected by the trade.
Summary:
USDA’s Prospective Plantings report indicated corn planted acreage would be up 5% from last year, soybean acreage would be down 1%, and wheat acreage would be up 8%. The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report indicated corn stocks are down 15% from last year, soybean stocks are down 2%, and wheat stocks are up 5% from 2010.
Posted by Stu Ellis on 03/31 at 08:38 AM | Permalink